Cheng Zhao, Nicola Criscuolo, Burcu Tepekule, Monica Golumbeanu, Melissa Penny, Peter Ashcroft, Matthias Hilty, Thierry Fumeaux, Thomas Van Boeckel
ETH Zürich, Swiss TPH, Universitätsspital Zürich, Swiss Society for Intensive Care Medicine
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This tool estimates national trends in daily confirmed cases, hospitalizations, ICU occupancy and deaths using a negative binomial generalized linear model. The model uses reported numbers as the response and date and weekend (0: work day, 1: weekend) as predictors. Confirmed cases and hospitalizations are further stratified by canton and age groups. Due to reporting delays, the last 3 and 5 days of confirmed cases and hospitalizations/deaths are removed, respectively. Lines and ribbons show the maximum likelihood estimate of the exponential increase/decrease and the 95% prediction intervals of the model fit, respectively.
A collection of indicator values for Switzerland
The large number of individuals placed into quarantine because of possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure has high societal and economic costs. There is ongoing debate about the appropriate duration of quarantine, particularly since the fraction of individuals who eventually test positive is perceived as being low. We use empirically-determined distributions of incubation period, infectivity, and generation time to quantify how the duration of quarantine affects onward transmission from traced contacts of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and from returning travellers. We also consider the roles of testing followed by release if negative (test-and-release), reinforced hygiene, adherence, and symptoms in calculating quarantine efficacy. We show that there are quarantine strategies based on a test-and-release protocol that, from an epidemiological viewpoint, perform almost as well as a 10 day quarantine, but with fewer person days spent in quarantine. The findings apply to both travellers and contacts, but the specifics depend on the context.
Read the full preprint on medRxiv.
We present a mathematical model that leverages empirically determined distributions of incubation period, infectivity, and generation time to quantify how test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) strategies can reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The TTIQ strategy is determined by five independent parameters:
We have two further parameters describing the epidemic situation without TTIQ measures:
This is work in progress. This has not yet been peer-reviewed. Read the full preprint on medRxiv.
Covid-19 Dashboard for Switzerland. A collection of exploratory data bites.
Please see individual modules for specifics.
Source Code for this site is available on GitHub
Bug reports, issues or other reports and suggestions are always welcome on out GitHub Issue Tracker!
in no particular order.